Fate, statistics or driving skill?

After the events of the day unfolded someone asked me if I believed in statistics. As you read on you may think I should now accept that figures do not lie.

This was my 6th attempt at some form of race at Brands. The history is as follows:

2002 – 2 races – knocked off in qualifying, car knackered , borrowed car of assailant and finished the second race despite two spins
2003 – 2nd to Simon Davey
2004 – in lead when hit by another car leading to a great deal of publicity as the car barrel rolled 5 times and was wrecked
2005 – first race back after the aforementioned crash and was hit from the rear by another competitor
2006 - see below

Now this last crash may have been my fault. People can say that backmarkers should get out of the way but it is quite possible that I did not give him the room. It was actually Damion Gough in the red car and it was his first race and his RP26 had been immaculate and whilst not severely damaged (he finished the race) it was bent and he has my sympathy regardless of blame.

For me I have to try and rationalise the experience of yet another crash at Brands. I do believe in fate so can put an element of the events down to this. I do not believe that because you have had accidents at Brands previously you are likely to have another. This feels a little like the tossing the coin and predicting heads or tails argument. So what of the potential view that I am a crap driver? My first reaction is to note that of the four accidents I have had at Brands 3 have involved an attack from the rear. This last one ended up with my rear and Damion’s front damaged but I repeat I am not seeking to blame him – it could have been down to me.

Thus you have to look elsewhere for evidence. And from my memories I can think of Cadwell Park where I was a total dick (serious damage and still do not know what I did); Croft, total dick again but very minor damage and the result of panic because I thought I was going to hit the barrier so over-braked – and then hit the barrier; and Snetterton when a competitor slowed down rather dramatically coming out of the pits and I hit him from the rear – my fault in theory but in my heart the marshals cocked it up!

So where does this honest description of my history lead us?

1) To great expense
2) Bad luck
3) Normal smattering of stupidity when driving cars very fast and trying to win

On balance I think I will just carry on – but I may just give Brands a miss in future in case statistics do not lie……..

Oulton Park, 17th June – case of Cobra beer to anyone who claims it (subject to rules)

Oh yes – and it is my birthday today.